Galaxy Digital warns that the Senate has only four days to push the CLARITY Act before recess, with passage odds reduced to 30%.
As the countdown continues, regulatory-concerns/">Galaxy Digital has announced a significant decrease in the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing this year. In a recent client note, the institutional-interest-grows-as-hashkey-cloud-supports-stacks-genesis-bond-for-bitcoin-yield/">crypto investment firm indicated that the bill's chances of success have fallen to just 30%.
With the Senate facing a critical deadline—only four working days left until the July 30 cutoff—lawmakers are under pressure to secure a deal that could ultimately allow the legislation to progress before the August recess.
The latest draft of the CLARITY Act has not managed to sway enough Democratic votes, leaving the Republicans unable to reach the 60 votes necessary to advance the bill. This situation prompts vocal calls for immediate action from various crypto organizations, law enforcement agencies, and community leaders.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, emphasizes the bill’s inherent value, stating that it significantly enhances regulation, investor protection, and overall growth for the U.S. economy. He added, “The time for incremental negotiations is over; we need a last-ditch effort to save the bill.”
On July 24, Senate Republicans revealed an updated 616-page version of the combined crypto market-structure legislation. This latest iteration includes a mixture of previously approved measures from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, as well as additional government ethics guidelines, law-enforcement provisions, and modifications related to the GENIUS Act.
Among the new additions, the bill proposes prohibiting senior federal officials—including the president, vice president, members of Congress, and federal judges—from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies while in office. This ethically charged enhancement aims to bolster trust in governing structures.
Furthermore, the updated draft reinforces measures targeting fraud and illicit finance, strengthens CFTC registration and custody requirements, and revises stablecoin governance under the GENIUS Act.
However, these modifications have yet to attract the necessary support from the Senate's Democratic faction. Seven pivotal Democratic Senators—Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, and Raphael Warnock—have expressed that the current proposal continues to “fall short” in terms of essential safeguards.
With Republicans controlling 53 seats in the Senate, achieving the 60-vote threshold needed for the CLARITY Act becomes crucial. Interestingly, Galaxy Digital predicts that reliable Republican support might only consist of around 50 votes, given obstacles such as opposition from Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul and uncertainty surrounding Senator Mitch McConnell, who has not voted since a recent hospitalization.
The timeline for negotiations is shrinking rapidly, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that completing all pending legislation before the summer break is unlikely. However, he leaves open a glimmer of hope for starting discussions around the CLARITY Act itself.
“I would like to at least get CLARITY started,” he stated, acknowledging the urgency of the situation while emphasizing the need to ascertain where the votes currently stand.
Galaxy Digital highlights that a deal must be finalized by July 30, as initiating floor discussions would require sufficient time to navigate cloture filings, procedural voting, debate over amendments, and movement toward final approval before senators depart for recess.
Delaying discussions until September would pose further challenges amid a legislative calendar filled with contentious matters, including government funding and election-year politics.
The deteriorating outlook has triggered a surge in lobbying efforts aimed at propelling the CLARITY Act onto the Senate floor. Organizations such as the Digital Chamber, Crypto Council for Innovation, and Blockchain Association have jointly urged key Senate leaders, Thune and minority leader Chuck Schumer, to prioritize the legislation, even as bipartisan talks are ongoing.
In a letter addressed to the Senate leaders, the groups claimed that the new legislation not only strengthens tools against illicit finance but also introduces broader federal consumer safeguards for digital asset markets. They argue that these improvements reflect constructive dialogue with policymakers from both parties and could facilitate innovation while enhancing national security.
Supporters have widened their influence beyond typical crypto factions. The National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP), representing over 382,000 law enforcement officers, has endorsed the revised legislation after it adequately addressed prior reservations regarding developer protections that could impact criminal investigations.
FOP President Patrick Yoes affirmed that the revisions maintain essential authorities necessary to investigate financial crimes involving digital assets, bolstering the credibility of the legislation.
Another strong voice for the bill comes from the National Black Church Initiative (NBCI), which represents a diverse coalition of 150,000 faith communities and about 27.7 million members. The NBCI has urgently called for swift passage of the legislation, arguing that clearer oversight could help protect consumers from digital asset fraud while creating vital access to financial services, entrepreneurship, and investment opportunities.
The NBCI stated, “The Black Church cannot afford to be late to the future of finance, and we cannot allow our people to enter that future unprotected.” This sentiment underscores a push that is gaining traction among diverse sectors of society.
Jake Chervinsky, CEO of the Hyperliquid Policy Center, noted that the compromises created within the bill provide limited grounds for further delays. He called for every senator who publicly advocates for crypto to be compelled to take a position through a floor vote. Such pressures leave Senate leaders at a crossroads, facing the dilemma of whether to continue negotiations offline or to initiate proceedings while crucial matters are still unresolved.
The clock is ticking for the passage of the CLARITY Act as all eyes turn toward the Senate in these final few days. While various factions continue to negotiate critical essential details, the bill stands at a crossroads, requiring a decisive action that may redefine digital asset regulations in the United States.
With broad support from sectors beyond traditional crypto stakeholders, the CLARITY Act represents a pivotal opportunity to establish a secure framework for the evolving digital asset economy. Whether lawmakers can finalize an agreement within the limited timeframe remains to be seen, but the urgency echoes throughout the Capitol as stakeholders press for the completion of this vital legislation.